It's beginning to look a lot like forecasting season

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	Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more Almost Timely News: 🗞️ AI and GEO Advice for Retailers for the 2026 Holiday Shopping Season (2026-05-24) It's beginning to look a lot like forecasting season Christopher S. Penn May 24   READ IN APP   Almost Timely News: 🗞️ AI and GEO Advice for Retailers for the 2026 Holiday Shopping Season (2026-05-24) :: View in Browser The Big Plugs New things! 1️⃣ Prompt to Skill Plugin 2️⃣ My new GEO 101 course Content Authenticity Statement 95% of this week’s newsletter content was originated by me, the human. The chart in section 2 was generated by Claude’s Python code. Learn why this kind of disclosure is a good idea and might be required for anyone doing business in any capacity with the EU in the near future. Watch This Newsletter On YouTube 📺 Click here for the video 📺 version of this newsletter on YouTube » Click here for an MP3 audio 🎧 only version » What’s On My Mind: AI and GEO Advice for Retailers for the 2026 Holiday Shopping Season This week, let’s talk about the holiday retail season. If you’re checking your phone to look at the calendar, you’re not mistaken. It’s not even June yet. But Michele asked a fascinating question to me about AI and retailers that I thought warranted a much deeper dive: “What’s one thing retailers should be doing now to prepare for the future of search this holiday season? And how should they actually approach it?“ Let’s dig into this, because it’s a more complicated question than it seems, and it hinges on what the holiday season is, what search is, and what most companies are getting wrong. Part 1: The Holiday Retail Season As consumers, we think of the holiday season as mostly December. In the global north, that’s winter; in the global south, that’s summer. November and December are when B2B slows down and B2C is operating at a frenetic pace. But that’s not when the holiday season starts, not for retailers. The holiday season starts... well, started a month or so ago. Retailers have to think about inventory, and with global chaos caused by the US federal government’s attacks on Iran and the subsequent closure of major shipping lanes and disruption of the energy economy, there are many more wildcards in play. Retailers have to try figuring out what demand will be, and when consumers will be interested in what they have to offer. That’s where tools like forecasting come into play, and with generative AI, that forecasting is easier and more accessible than it’s ever been before. Let’s start with trend data. If we want to understand what’s likely to happen, and we have a fairly durable set of past history to draw from, we can use AI to do that inference. There are two catches here. First, this is classical AI - AI that’s rooted in regression analysis, math and statistics, as opposed to generative AI, which is what almost everyone else means today when they use the word AI. Second, we need data to forecast from. Some of the best free data sources come from government sources (especially boring ones that are politically neutral, like the number of air travelers through USA TSA checkpoints daily, one of my favorite travel industry datasets) or Google Trends data. Let’s say we want to know when people will start thinking about shopping for the holidays. Where might we go? We’d start with search data, because search data is durable and highly predictable. Take a look at Google Trends for trends phrases like “holiday gift guide”. These remained durable even through the pandemic, because people never stopped looking for gift ideas. You’ll see it begins its inflection roughly every September. The second thing we need to determine is whether or not the consumer is in a buying mood. That’s where things like consumer sentiment play a role, such as the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. When sentiment is low, people tend to buy less. The Google Trends data tells you what’s likely to happen. The consumer sentiment survey tells you the probable magnitude. Now, if you’ve never done forecasting before, the good news is that generative AI makes this easier than ever to get started. You don’t need to own any software other than an AI coding agent like Claude Code, Claude Cowork, Google Antigravity, OpenAI Codex, OpenCode, or similar, and you don’t need the smartest, most expensive model for what’s essentially commodity statistics. We’ll want to weight things like inflation as well, since life has gotten much more expensive in recent years, so we’ll get median inflation (inflation inclusive of everything) from the US Federal Reserve Bank, plus Adobe’s annual holiday shopping reports which are always excellent summaries of the season overall. Put all your data in one location and open up your AI coding tool. Here’s a good starting prompt you’ll want to adapt and improve: You’re a consumer shopping expert skilled at statistics, causal inference, and forecasting. Today you’ll be building a forecast for the 2026 holiday season. In the input folder, you’ll find the following datasets as raw data. [1] Google Trends data for the last 5 years for holiday gift guide related terms, week level data - googletrends.csv. [2] University of Michigan consumer sentiment data, month level data - UMCSENT.csv. [3] Adobe Consumer Shopping survey with multiple charts in it that need extraction into YAML, yearly data - adobe folder, multiple PNGs. [4] Median consumer price index inflation (percent change at annual rate) from the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, month level data - MEDCPIM158SFRBCLE.csv. All these data series are different frequencies and need to be accounted for in your forecasting; Google Trends tells us when people are most likely to start searching (intent), Adobe tells us what happened in the past as an outcome to measure past forecasts against, consumer sentiment tells us how likely people are to spend more or less, and median CPI tells us how much to adjust past forecasts and results to normalize spending over the years based on inflation. You’ll need to think through the data series we have and decide what transformations and feature engineering make the most sense. You’ll build your forecast by selecting time series forecasting techniques such as SARIMAX, Prophet, Greykite, Timer S1, and other techniques based on the data we have. Use your web search tools (today is 2026-05-23) to help you select FOSS Python-based time series forecasting libraries and packages such as statsmodels, prophet, scikit-learn, prophet. Packages must have been updated on Github on or after 2026-01-01. Do the feature engineering and transformations first, starting with the conversion of charts from the Adobe PDF into YAML datasets. Use the weekly Google Trends data to disaggregate the yearly Adobe data into weekly target variables before training the model. Then test different forecasting techniques against past outcomes with backtesting and robust overfitting prevention; use causal inference methods and techniques you know such as granger causality, vector autoregression, CausalImpact, and other relevant techniques to judge how much to weigh each input for the final forecast. Once you’ve determined the best techniques or ensemble of techniques, produce an explanation of your choices in the output folder along with the final forecast. The final forecast should be week level data along with a writeup of where the inflection for holiday shopping starts, and should also include a time series visualization in PNG format, 16:9 aspect ratio. All output files must be in the output folder with date-stamped file names such as forecast-chart-2026-05-23.png. Ask me questions until you have enough information to successfully complete the task. I realize that’s a wall of text, but it’s easier to copy and paste, and AI will know what to do with it. Give this to your coding agent - a web-based chat LLM like ChatGPT will never, ever successfully complete this task. What we see in the forecast for 2026? Lower dollar spend than in 2025, probably on par with 2024 or earlier, and consumers begin their searches for holiday gift ideas around the week of September 20, peaking the week of December 6. Now that we know when we need to be ready, we can dig into the search part of the question. Part 2: The Future of Search and GEO for Retailers GEO (generative engine optimization) advice is a bag of land mines and rabid, flaming gerbils at the moment, and reaching in the bag blindly for GEO advice is bad news. You’ll get bitten, burned, and blown up by a lot of GEO advice, most of which is either anecdotal or just unhinged. I won’t speak for others, but what advice I have to share is either based on what credible folks like Lily Ray, Garrett Sussman, and Rand Fishkin have found through rigorous experimentation, or what I know from reading patents, technical papers, academic papers, and studies. It’s how I put together the Trust Insights GEO 101 course. Here’s the single biggest thing I know to be true at the moment: almost all “AI visibility” tools are bullshit. There’s no polite way to say that. Here’s why. First, generative AI tools are all probabilistic. If you’ve never tried this before, ask for the kind of advice you know a stakeholder would want to be included in, from your web-based chat tool of choice. For example, “Name the top 5 vacation spots a family of four should consider in 2026” is something a destination marketer stakeholder would want to see results for. Then copy-paste that prompt into 5 brand new chats and see if the results you get are consistent in your various AI tools. Spoiler: they won’t be. Now, there’s some nuance there. If you work in a field where there are only 3 companies period, then you’ll get consistent results. But for a lot of places, there will be wild variation. Second, the biggest AI recommendation system is still Google. SparkToro and Gumshoe earlier this year showed that 93-95% of all searches are still Google, and Google AI Overviews and Google AI Mode are now the dominant features in search. This past week at Google I/O 2026, Google said AI Mode will be part of the default search experience, pushing searchers into conversations with Gemini as fast as possible. Eagle-eyed folks spotted that Google is using heavy personalization in its AI Overviews and AI Mode; Lily Ray confirmed that with a Gemini system prompt about a week ago. Garrett Sussman at SEOWeek showed that emails in your Gmail inbox, photos in your Google Photos account, and your YouTube history all affect what results you see in search. In fact, brand mentions within emails seemed, in Garrett’s year-long testing, to influence AI Overviews, even if they were in emails not from the brand itself. All this means that any tool proclaiming they know what level of visibility your brand has in AI is lying to you, period, end of story. And the more zeroes they charge you in the price, the more they are lying. Why? Because we all know from our experiences in the last 3 years that a single word’s difference in a prompt can radically change what we see. Now imagine the thousands of words of extra context that Google gets from Gmail, YouTube, Google Photos, Google Podcasts, Google Chrome browsing history, Google Ads impression data, etc. That can go into a prompt as part of its context for building you AI Overview and AI Mode responses. There is simply no way to credibly predict any of that. There is no way to know whether your ideal consumer searching for holidays gifts has a stockpile of emails from a competitor in their inbox that will weight their results in search heavily in favor of the competitor, and an AI Visibility tool claiming that your brand is more prominent will be lying to you. So what should retailers be doing, given this rather grim state of GEO tools? Follow the formula outlined by what Google’s AI - and other AI tools - all use as their backbone. Be everywhere you can be. The Trust Insights GEO 101 course teaches this in modules 2 and 3. Part 3: What To Do Based on parts 1 and 2, I should hope that what to do next is clear: you have 3 months from now until the shopping season starts to saturate whatever media channels you have with the most useful, helpful, semantically relevant content that your consumers keep in their inboxes, that your consumers watch on YouTube, that your consumers share on social media and forward to each other. There’s a catch here: it has to be the most AND the best. You can absolutely create a swamp of crap pretty easily, but Google in its most recent updates to search guidelines is specifically penalizing crap. Here’s the relevant paragraph from the guidelines: Creating non-commodity content that’s helpful, reliable, and people-first: Be sure that you’re writing non-commodity content that your readers will find helpful and reliable. Commodity content (for example, something like “7 Tips for First-Time Homebuyers”) is often based on common knowledge, which could originate from anyone, and typically adds little unique insight for readers. In contrast, non-commodity content (such as “Why We Waived the Inspection & Saved Money: A Look Inside the Sewer Line”) provides unique expert or experienced takes that go beyond common knowledge and the ordinary. Okay, so how do you do that in an age of AI? Katie Robbert and I were talking about this recently, as it goes back to the DNA of Trust Insights - the unique data only you can provide is what allows you to create non-commodity content. What data do you have that no one else - including Google - has that you can use to transform ordinary content into content that’s unique to you? Think about what I did in this newsletter, where I put a forecast for the 2026 holiday shopping season. This is unique data because no one else has run this forecast yet. Yet, by doing that, by creating new content, particularly about retailers and B2C marketers, even though I used existing content, I transmuted it in a new way that A, hopefully creates value, and B is unique and non-commodity. There’s a second catch here, as shared by many folks recently: your best content should also be difficult for AI to summarize, otherwise Google will present it in summary form to your audience and likely NOT send the searcher to you. One travel blogger made mention that his traffic is way down, and when he went to AI Overviews to see what his audience saw, Google was presenting summaries of his work with ads and mentions of his competition instead. How can you make rich, interactive content that’s difficult for Google to abstract away and summarize? A piece of content that I produced that is genuinely useful, I think, is the Trust Insights AIView software that’s available on our site for free. This is an experience. This is software that does something. It’s not just static content that Google can easily summarize. You have to participate in this content, but it provides a lot of value to you. Finally, the most valuable long term strategic play you can make is to invest the most in systems you control - your email list, your text messaging list, your direct mail list - anything where you retain control of your audience. Social media? Definitely not, at least not public social media (Xitter, Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, etc.). Private social media like Discord, Slack, etc. are better BUT you can still have your platform vanish if the company goes bust or kicks you off the platform after being bought by a broligarch who doesn’t like what you have to say. We know from both Lily Ray and Garrett Sussman that the Gmail inbox is a critical part of GEO for Google in personalization, so be sure you’re not only creating emails that people desperately want to open, but also want to keep in their inboxes until the holiday shopping season. For example, if I knew, as a retailer, that I wanted my products and services primed for the holiday season, I’d be thinking about what valuable content I could create that would be timely - like summer vacation ideas - but with brands, products, and services that I really want my audience to keep in mind throughout the holiday shopping season. I’d be putting up YouTube videos that were awesome or at the very least useful and entertaining every week between now and December 6 to ensure my consumers’ Google history was as littered with me as possible. Part 4: Wrapping Up Michele’s question was originally for a short quote in an upcoming article. As Blaise Pascal wrote in 1657, “The present letter is a very long one, simply because I had no leisure to make it shorter.” The answer I gave to her was a short snippet that I thought deserved more airtime than the space she was able to make for my contribution (and given how long this newsletter is, she made the correct call). If you’re a retailer, especially in B2C, this newsletter is your blueprint for what you need to do between now and mid-September when the holiday shopping season begins with consumer interest. In Adobe’s report from 2025, half of shoppers used an AI assistant of some kind in their holiday shopping, and that was before all the tech companies shoved AI into literally every product in existence. I would only expect that to increase this year, which means you have a scant few months to get your data and AI strategy rolling. Shameless plug: this is exactly the kind of work I and my company, Trust Insights do (obviously, because I needed to do it to produce this newsletter). If you want help doing this sort of analysis and planning for your company, hit up our contact form. How Was This Issue? Rate this week’s newsletter issue with a single click/tap. Your feedback over time helps me figure out what content to create for you. 😄 Good 😐 Neutral 😦 Bad Here’s The Unsubscribe It took me a while to find a convenient way to link it up, but here’s how to get to the unsubscribe. 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ICYMI: In Case You Missed It Here’s content from the last week in case things fell through the cracks: How to Get AI to Stop Generating Boring, Recycled Nonsense (The Red Ocean Trick That Actually Works) Protect Your Writing: Why Every AI-Generated Work Needs a Good Faith Copyright Check Zhipu AI’s GLM-5.1: The 8-Hour Autonomous LLM That Could Reshape Your Backup Strategy AI Could Replace This Entire $51,000/Year PR Job — Here’s the Proof How to Build a Local AI-Powered Newspaper: A Real-World Agentic AI Project Plan That Actually Works Almost Timely News: 🗞️ 18 Ways To Save AI Token Budgets (2026-05-17) Google Changes Everything So What? Intro to Knowledge Graphs INBOX INSIGHTS: The Job AI Can’t Do, Enterprise AI Part 1 (2026-05-20) In-Ear Insights: What is Requirements Engineering in Agentic AI? On The Tubes Here’s what debuted on my YouTube channel this week: So What? Intro to Knowledge Graphs You Ask, I Answer: Writing Syntactically Correct JSON You Ask, I Answer: Checking AI Logical Fallacies You Ask, I Answer: Finding High Intent Topics You Ask, I Answer: Managing Conflicting AI Instructions You Ask, I Answer: Better AI For Personal Growth? You Ask, I Answer: HIPAA Compliant Enterprise AI LLMs? You Ask, I Answer: Implementing Real Enterprise AI Governance? You Ask, I Answer: Avoiding Enterprise AI Lockin? My Merch Shop I’ve been adding so much stuff that I’ve decided to bundle it all in what I call a Merch Shop, because otherwise there’s literally too much to keep track of and I run out of space in my own newsletter. So welcome to the Merch Shop! Skills for Claude and Agentic AI: Prompt to Skill Plugin/Skill - turn any prompt into a skill powered by the 5P Framework by Trust Insights Job to AI Skill and Plugin - unpack any job description into what AI can and can’t do Fact Check Skill (FREE!) Books: Almost Timeless: 48 Foundation Principles of Generative AI Generative AI for SEO and PPC Marketers Generative AI for Destination Marketers Courses: GEO 101 for Marketers The AI Ready Strategist Mastering Prompt Engineering for Marketing Generative AI Use Cases Subscriptions: The Prompt Playbook - collections of prompts from my channel and newsletters, delivered weekly Recent Talks These are just a few of the classes I have available over at the Trust Insights website that you can take. 👉 New! From Text to Video in Seconds, a session on AI video generation! Never Think Alone: How AI Has Changed Marketing Forever (AMA 2025) Generative AI for Tourism and Destination Marketing Powering Up Your LinkedIn Profile (For Job Hunters) 2023 Edition Building the Data-Driven, AI-Powered Customer Journey for Retail and Ecommerce, 2024 Edition The Marketing Singularity: How Generative AI Means the End of Marketing As We Knew It Advertisement: New GEO 101 Course When I talk to folks like you, being recommended by AI is one of your top marketing concerns in 2026. We’ve taken everything we’ve learned from OpenAI’s documentation, Google’s technical papers, patents, sample code, plus our years of experience in generative AI to assemble a high-impact 90-minute course on GEO 101 for Marketers. In this course, you’ll learn: The three distinct phases of GEO and how they work How to optimize for each phase (they’re different!) How to measure your GEO efforts in a meaningful and valid way This course is meant to be used. 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